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CS 2: North Sea

Description of work

The backbone of the North Sea case study will be the science conducted in WP 1-3, which will provide a sound process-based understanding on how slow and/or sudden ecosystem and management changes impact on North Sea cod, plaice and herring stock recovery potentials. The mediating processes to be investigated include: stock reproductive potentials (WP 1); top down and bottom up processes affecting early and juvenile life stages, recruitment in relation to spawner biomass/demographics and environmental variability (WP 2); changes in trophic control in the entire fish food web (ECOSIM), direct and indirect predation in critical interactions, emergence of small-scale high intensity predation events on the system scale (OSMOSE - type simulation model, WP 3).

Subsequent data analysis will lead into, or enhance existing, conceptual models, which will be transferred in process models. These process models will be tailored for implementation into multi species fisheries assessment models.

Stochastic and deterministic North Sea multi species fisheries assessment models (4M/SMS), with enhanced and validated process parameterisations, will provide robust hindcasts of historic stock developments and scenario simulation using different environmental regimes and management strategies will also be carried out. Results and process models will be incorporated within the generic fisheries management evaluation tool (FEMS), which will be used to evaluated competing strategies for stock rebuilding (WP 4). Social, economic and governance influences on recovery plan effectiveness will be investigated in WP 5 and a synthesis of all insight gained from WPs 1 - 5 will finally lead to the development of robust management strategies in WP 6.

Stakeholder links

Liaison will be established with the North Sea Commission Fisheries Partnership, the Regional Advisory Council on Fisheries and the main sectoral organisations, e.g. National Danish Fisheries Organisation. Stake-holder meetings will be arranged after the kick off meeting of the project and throughout the project.

Read more: Background information to this case study area

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